Carlsen-Caruana Game 12











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Any online search about the recent game 12 in Carlsen-Caruana's WCC is filled with the surprise caused by Carlsen offering a draw when in a (possibly?) winning position. It was announced on chess.com that




the top eight chess engines in the CCC will play a 2x-round-robin tournament starting after move 31 of the world chess championship game 12. The time control is rapid chess, 30 minutes plus five-second increment.




At the moment of writing this, I can see the tournament here. But I don't know enough about chess or at least how chess.com works to understand what's happening.



Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was?










share|improve this question


















  • 3




    Click "view crosstable" I believe every pairing of computers plays the white side once and the black side once. So compare the results from the first column of each matchup to the second column of each matchup to determine whether white or black was better.
    – NoseKnowsAll
    Nov 29 at 5:15






  • 1




    I have played out the position with Stockfish 9 giving it plenty of time. I also tried various variants where the engine was flapping between move candidates. All attempted variations ended in a draw although the engine was 0.8-1.4 during the first ~20 continuation moves.
    – boot4life
    2 days ago










  • I'm looking to update my answer with the final results, but keep getting an "access violation" when trying to pull it up. Does anyone know the win-loss-draw results?
    – Lord Farquaad
    2 days ago















up vote
17
down vote

favorite
4












Any online search about the recent game 12 in Carlsen-Caruana's WCC is filled with the surprise caused by Carlsen offering a draw when in a (possibly?) winning position. It was announced on chess.com that




the top eight chess engines in the CCC will play a 2x-round-robin tournament starting after move 31 of the world chess championship game 12. The time control is rapid chess, 30 minutes plus five-second increment.




At the moment of writing this, I can see the tournament here. But I don't know enough about chess or at least how chess.com works to understand what's happening.



Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was?










share|improve this question


















  • 3




    Click "view crosstable" I believe every pairing of computers plays the white side once and the black side once. So compare the results from the first column of each matchup to the second column of each matchup to determine whether white or black was better.
    – NoseKnowsAll
    Nov 29 at 5:15






  • 1




    I have played out the position with Stockfish 9 giving it plenty of time. I also tried various variants where the engine was flapping between move candidates. All attempted variations ended in a draw although the engine was 0.8-1.4 during the first ~20 continuation moves.
    – boot4life
    2 days ago










  • I'm looking to update my answer with the final results, but keep getting an "access violation" when trying to pull it up. Does anyone know the win-loss-draw results?
    – Lord Farquaad
    2 days ago













up vote
17
down vote

favorite
4









up vote
17
down vote

favorite
4






4





Any online search about the recent game 12 in Carlsen-Caruana's WCC is filled with the surprise caused by Carlsen offering a draw when in a (possibly?) winning position. It was announced on chess.com that




the top eight chess engines in the CCC will play a 2x-round-robin tournament starting after move 31 of the world chess championship game 12. The time control is rapid chess, 30 minutes plus five-second increment.




At the moment of writing this, I can see the tournament here. But I don't know enough about chess or at least how chess.com works to understand what's happening.



Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was?










share|improve this question













Any online search about the recent game 12 in Carlsen-Caruana's WCC is filled with the surprise caused by Carlsen offering a draw when in a (possibly?) winning position. It was announced on chess.com that




the top eight chess engines in the CCC will play a 2x-round-robin tournament starting after move 31 of the world chess championship game 12. The time control is rapid chess, 30 minutes plus five-second increment.




At the moment of writing this, I can see the tournament here. But I don't know enough about chess or at least how chess.com works to understand what's happening.



Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was?







world-championship computer-chess






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asked Nov 29 at 5:01









Martin Argerami

25927




25927








  • 3




    Click "view crosstable" I believe every pairing of computers plays the white side once and the black side once. So compare the results from the first column of each matchup to the second column of each matchup to determine whether white or black was better.
    – NoseKnowsAll
    Nov 29 at 5:15






  • 1




    I have played out the position with Stockfish 9 giving it plenty of time. I also tried various variants where the engine was flapping between move candidates. All attempted variations ended in a draw although the engine was 0.8-1.4 during the first ~20 continuation moves.
    – boot4life
    2 days ago










  • I'm looking to update my answer with the final results, but keep getting an "access violation" when trying to pull it up. Does anyone know the win-loss-draw results?
    – Lord Farquaad
    2 days ago














  • 3




    Click "view crosstable" I believe every pairing of computers plays the white side once and the black side once. So compare the results from the first column of each matchup to the second column of each matchup to determine whether white or black was better.
    – NoseKnowsAll
    Nov 29 at 5:15






  • 1




    I have played out the position with Stockfish 9 giving it plenty of time. I also tried various variants where the engine was flapping between move candidates. All attempted variations ended in a draw although the engine was 0.8-1.4 during the first ~20 continuation moves.
    – boot4life
    2 days ago










  • I'm looking to update my answer with the final results, but keep getting an "access violation" when trying to pull it up. Does anyone know the win-loss-draw results?
    – Lord Farquaad
    2 days ago








3




3




Click "view crosstable" I believe every pairing of computers plays the white side once and the black side once. So compare the results from the first column of each matchup to the second column of each matchup to determine whether white or black was better.
– NoseKnowsAll
Nov 29 at 5:15




Click "view crosstable" I believe every pairing of computers plays the white side once and the black side once. So compare the results from the first column of each matchup to the second column of each matchup to determine whether white or black was better.
– NoseKnowsAll
Nov 29 at 5:15




1




1




I have played out the position with Stockfish 9 giving it plenty of time. I also tried various variants where the engine was flapping between move candidates. All attempted variations ended in a draw although the engine was 0.8-1.4 during the first ~20 continuation moves.
– boot4life
2 days ago




I have played out the position with Stockfish 9 giving it plenty of time. I also tried various variants where the engine was flapping between move candidates. All attempted variations ended in a draw although the engine was 0.8-1.4 during the first ~20 continuation moves.
– boot4life
2 days ago












I'm looking to update my answer with the final results, but keep getting an "access violation" when trying to pull it up. Does anyone know the win-loss-draw results?
– Lord Farquaad
2 days ago




I'm looking to update my answer with the final results, but keep getting an "access violation" when trying to pull it up. Does anyone know the win-loss-draw results?
– Lord Farquaad
2 days ago










6 Answers
6






active

oldest

votes

















up vote
20
down vote














Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's
decision was?




No. Consensus on Carlsen's play and decision has already been reached, I would suggest.



Psychologically Carlsen made it clear in the post match interview that his goal before this game was a draw to reach the rapid playoff where he thought (correctly) that he was strong favourite to win. Hence his play was aimed at taking no risks and inviting a draw at every opportunity. For instance, he offered to repeat moves around about move 14 or 15. In so far as he practically forced Caruana to accept the draw and then went on to win the playoff 3-0 his decision was a good one.



From a chess point of view the consensus is that a few moves earlier Carlsen had a winning advantage, say after white's 29. Re1, and that Carlsen made quiet moves rather than the aggressive moves he needed to make to win.



While the game was in progress a very powerful computer, sesse, was analysing the positions and showing its analysis and evaluations.



This computer tournament adds nothing to the judgement as to how good or bad Carlsen's decision was.






share|improve this answer




























    up vote
    19
    down vote














    Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was?




    Not quite. As others have pointed out, Carlsen's decision was based on factors outside that one game. With a stronger position and a large time advantage, Carlsen most likely could have won game 12, but Caruana had just tied Carlsen in 11 consecutive games, several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage. Caruana showed he could go toe-to-toe with our Norwegian champion, and so attacking his position would not come without risks.



    Meanwhile, a draw effectively changed the championship to a 4-game Rapid tournament (then Blitz if that ended in a tie), where Carlsen is a heavy favorite. While Carlsen and Caruana are roughly equal in standard chess (2835 and 2832 respectively), Carlsen is much stronger at Rapid (2880 and 2789) and Blitz (2939 and 2767). Why extend a game in an even format when a draw moves to a format you're stronger in?



    Having said that, the Chess community was not happy at all to see that draw offered (source: I was unhappy). I'll concede it was a technically correct decision, but as someone who had been waiting 11 games for a win, seeing one materialize then simply vanish was frustrating. It left a lot of people asking "What would have happened if Carlsen hadn't offered that draw? How would the game have ended?", and that's the question these games are answering.



    In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.



    So far, it's showing Carlsen had a very good lead. Of the games concluded at the time of this edit (and I'll update it after the tournament), black has 22 wins, white has 3, and they've drawn 24 times (If you're looking in the chat, they're occasionally updating the record like this: +3=24-22 . It reads + the number of white wins, = the number of draws, - the number of black wins). If you scored white and black positions like they had in the championship (1 point for a win, .5 for a draw), white would have 15 points to black's 34.



    What's more, this tournament is giving both sides equal time. That's not completely accurate, as Carlsen had a significant lead on time (though I've forgotten just how much). That implies these results are even too conservative, and that Carlsen may have had a larger lead. Having said that, humans and computers play in very different styles. Because it's winning for a computer doesn't guarantee it's winning for Carlsen (though he's practically a computer anyway), but it does show he had a strong opportunity to win it all in game 12.






    share|improve this answer























    • Thanks. Could you expand your last paragraph into what the consensus is on the position? It's not obvious to me, an outsider. Last time I checked there was roughly an equal number of draws than black wins, with a few white wins. To me that sounds "undecided", but maybe that's not how experts see it.
      – Martin Argerami
      Nov 29 at 15:13










    • @MartinArgerami Sure thing! Is that good?
      – Lord Farquaad
      Nov 29 at 15:23






    • 1




      Great answer. Answers both aspects of the question. In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.
      – Cyriac Antony
      2 days ago












    • If anyone has the final results (win/loss/draw), would you mind letting me know? I'm running into some issue looking them up
      – Lord Farquaad
      2 days ago










    • several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage None of the analyses I've seen have borne out this statement. This was very consistently accurate chess.
      – Ben Steward
      22 hours ago


















    up vote
    10
    down vote













    It will not show how good or bad Carlsen's decision was - humans play
    and assess differently from computers; there are positions that are extremely
    easy for computers, but terribly difficult for humans and vice versa.



    So a computer evaluation of ~+1 might not give any chance for a human win
    and in many cases a position with equal computer evaluation is an easy win
    for one side in a human game, most often difficult endgame defence, that
    computer never gets tired and plays perfectly and gets a draw, but human
    can't execute it with tablebase precision.



    I think Carlsen did Very OK, last game before tie-breaks, draw with
    black pieces - and he won the tie-break - that's the best proof that he
    was right :)






    share|improve this answer






























      up vote
      6
      down vote













      The classic game rating of Carlsen and Caruana is very close (3 points difference!). But rapid game rating is another story. The rating point difference is a whooping 100 points. Carlsen's strategy throughout this whole tournament was along these lines - beat me if you can in classic. If you don't, I will sweep you off in the rapid games. And he did exactly that. Sure, Caruana is a quality player; but playing under time pressure, not to mention pressure in playing for World Championshiop, is a totally different thing.



      So, Carlsen has no need to risk anything; (yet, it was Caruana who looked more happy after draw was agreed in game 12. This is quite understandable since Carlsen had the advantage in the game.)






      share|improve this answer



















      • 8




        This does not provide an answer to OP's actual question about the purpose of 2x round robin tournament of top 8 chess engines (starting from move 31 of game 12) being organized by chess.com
        – RedBaron
        Nov 29 at 11:35




















      up vote
      2
      down vote













      As Lord Farquaad points out, the tournament will only show how good Carlsen's position was, not how good his decision was. That said, his position was pretty damned good, if the computers can be believed: so far 49 games have been played, and the score is 23 Black wins to 3 White wins, with 23 draws.






      share|improve this answer




























        up vote
        2
        down vote













        The engine tournament is absolutely pointless. Engines don't make mistakes and they are far better at pushing in advantageous positions. Even then black still managed to lose games.



        Carlsen's decision was absolutely the right one for the highest probability of holding the title. Realistically in a GM game black probably had around a 20% chance of winning and a 10% chance of losing at best. Instead he goes for the tiebreakers where he as a 75%+ chance of winning that with his elo advantage.






        share|improve this answer





















        • Engines do make mistakes, or else they wouldn't lose (just draw).
          – Jossie Calderon
          10 hours ago











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        6 Answers
        6






        active

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        6 Answers
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        active

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        active

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        up vote
        20
        down vote














        Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's
        decision was?




        No. Consensus on Carlsen's play and decision has already been reached, I would suggest.



        Psychologically Carlsen made it clear in the post match interview that his goal before this game was a draw to reach the rapid playoff where he thought (correctly) that he was strong favourite to win. Hence his play was aimed at taking no risks and inviting a draw at every opportunity. For instance, he offered to repeat moves around about move 14 or 15. In so far as he practically forced Caruana to accept the draw and then went on to win the playoff 3-0 his decision was a good one.



        From a chess point of view the consensus is that a few moves earlier Carlsen had a winning advantage, say after white's 29. Re1, and that Carlsen made quiet moves rather than the aggressive moves he needed to make to win.



        While the game was in progress a very powerful computer, sesse, was analysing the positions and showing its analysis and evaluations.



        This computer tournament adds nothing to the judgement as to how good or bad Carlsen's decision was.






        share|improve this answer

























          up vote
          20
          down vote














          Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's
          decision was?




          No. Consensus on Carlsen's play and decision has already been reached, I would suggest.



          Psychologically Carlsen made it clear in the post match interview that his goal before this game was a draw to reach the rapid playoff where he thought (correctly) that he was strong favourite to win. Hence his play was aimed at taking no risks and inviting a draw at every opportunity. For instance, he offered to repeat moves around about move 14 or 15. In so far as he practically forced Caruana to accept the draw and then went on to win the playoff 3-0 his decision was a good one.



          From a chess point of view the consensus is that a few moves earlier Carlsen had a winning advantage, say after white's 29. Re1, and that Carlsen made quiet moves rather than the aggressive moves he needed to make to win.



          While the game was in progress a very powerful computer, sesse, was analysing the positions and showing its analysis and evaluations.



          This computer tournament adds nothing to the judgement as to how good or bad Carlsen's decision was.






          share|improve this answer























            up vote
            20
            down vote










            up vote
            20
            down vote










            Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's
            decision was?




            No. Consensus on Carlsen's play and decision has already been reached, I would suggest.



            Psychologically Carlsen made it clear in the post match interview that his goal before this game was a draw to reach the rapid playoff where he thought (correctly) that he was strong favourite to win. Hence his play was aimed at taking no risks and inviting a draw at every opportunity. For instance, he offered to repeat moves around about move 14 or 15. In so far as he practically forced Caruana to accept the draw and then went on to win the playoff 3-0 his decision was a good one.



            From a chess point of view the consensus is that a few moves earlier Carlsen had a winning advantage, say after white's 29. Re1, and that Carlsen made quiet moves rather than the aggressive moves he needed to make to win.



            While the game was in progress a very powerful computer, sesse, was analysing the positions and showing its analysis and evaluations.



            This computer tournament adds nothing to the judgement as to how good or bad Carlsen's decision was.






            share|improve this answer













            Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's
            decision was?




            No. Consensus on Carlsen's play and decision has already been reached, I would suggest.



            Psychologically Carlsen made it clear in the post match interview that his goal before this game was a draw to reach the rapid playoff where he thought (correctly) that he was strong favourite to win. Hence his play was aimed at taking no risks and inviting a draw at every opportunity. For instance, he offered to repeat moves around about move 14 or 15. In so far as he practically forced Caruana to accept the draw and then went on to win the playoff 3-0 his decision was a good one.



            From a chess point of view the consensus is that a few moves earlier Carlsen had a winning advantage, say after white's 29. Re1, and that Carlsen made quiet moves rather than the aggressive moves he needed to make to win.



            While the game was in progress a very powerful computer, sesse, was analysing the positions and showing its analysis and evaluations.



            This computer tournament adds nothing to the judgement as to how good or bad Carlsen's decision was.







            share|improve this answer












            share|improve this answer



            share|improve this answer










            answered Nov 29 at 12:12









            Brian Towers

            13.8k32263




            13.8k32263






















                up vote
                19
                down vote














                Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was?




                Not quite. As others have pointed out, Carlsen's decision was based on factors outside that one game. With a stronger position and a large time advantage, Carlsen most likely could have won game 12, but Caruana had just tied Carlsen in 11 consecutive games, several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage. Caruana showed he could go toe-to-toe with our Norwegian champion, and so attacking his position would not come without risks.



                Meanwhile, a draw effectively changed the championship to a 4-game Rapid tournament (then Blitz if that ended in a tie), where Carlsen is a heavy favorite. While Carlsen and Caruana are roughly equal in standard chess (2835 and 2832 respectively), Carlsen is much stronger at Rapid (2880 and 2789) and Blitz (2939 and 2767). Why extend a game in an even format when a draw moves to a format you're stronger in?



                Having said that, the Chess community was not happy at all to see that draw offered (source: I was unhappy). I'll concede it was a technically correct decision, but as someone who had been waiting 11 games for a win, seeing one materialize then simply vanish was frustrating. It left a lot of people asking "What would have happened if Carlsen hadn't offered that draw? How would the game have ended?", and that's the question these games are answering.



                In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.



                So far, it's showing Carlsen had a very good lead. Of the games concluded at the time of this edit (and I'll update it after the tournament), black has 22 wins, white has 3, and they've drawn 24 times (If you're looking in the chat, they're occasionally updating the record like this: +3=24-22 . It reads + the number of white wins, = the number of draws, - the number of black wins). If you scored white and black positions like they had in the championship (1 point for a win, .5 for a draw), white would have 15 points to black's 34.



                What's more, this tournament is giving both sides equal time. That's not completely accurate, as Carlsen had a significant lead on time (though I've forgotten just how much). That implies these results are even too conservative, and that Carlsen may have had a larger lead. Having said that, humans and computers play in very different styles. Because it's winning for a computer doesn't guarantee it's winning for Carlsen (though he's practically a computer anyway), but it does show he had a strong opportunity to win it all in game 12.






                share|improve this answer























                • Thanks. Could you expand your last paragraph into what the consensus is on the position? It's not obvious to me, an outsider. Last time I checked there was roughly an equal number of draws than black wins, with a few white wins. To me that sounds "undecided", but maybe that's not how experts see it.
                  – Martin Argerami
                  Nov 29 at 15:13










                • @MartinArgerami Sure thing! Is that good?
                  – Lord Farquaad
                  Nov 29 at 15:23






                • 1




                  Great answer. Answers both aspects of the question. In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.
                  – Cyriac Antony
                  2 days ago












                • If anyone has the final results (win/loss/draw), would you mind letting me know? I'm running into some issue looking them up
                  – Lord Farquaad
                  2 days ago










                • several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage None of the analyses I've seen have borne out this statement. This was very consistently accurate chess.
                  – Ben Steward
                  22 hours ago















                up vote
                19
                down vote














                Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was?




                Not quite. As others have pointed out, Carlsen's decision was based on factors outside that one game. With a stronger position and a large time advantage, Carlsen most likely could have won game 12, but Caruana had just tied Carlsen in 11 consecutive games, several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage. Caruana showed he could go toe-to-toe with our Norwegian champion, and so attacking his position would not come without risks.



                Meanwhile, a draw effectively changed the championship to a 4-game Rapid tournament (then Blitz if that ended in a tie), where Carlsen is a heavy favorite. While Carlsen and Caruana are roughly equal in standard chess (2835 and 2832 respectively), Carlsen is much stronger at Rapid (2880 and 2789) and Blitz (2939 and 2767). Why extend a game in an even format when a draw moves to a format you're stronger in?



                Having said that, the Chess community was not happy at all to see that draw offered (source: I was unhappy). I'll concede it was a technically correct decision, but as someone who had been waiting 11 games for a win, seeing one materialize then simply vanish was frustrating. It left a lot of people asking "What would have happened if Carlsen hadn't offered that draw? How would the game have ended?", and that's the question these games are answering.



                In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.



                So far, it's showing Carlsen had a very good lead. Of the games concluded at the time of this edit (and I'll update it after the tournament), black has 22 wins, white has 3, and they've drawn 24 times (If you're looking in the chat, they're occasionally updating the record like this: +3=24-22 . It reads + the number of white wins, = the number of draws, - the number of black wins). If you scored white and black positions like they had in the championship (1 point for a win, .5 for a draw), white would have 15 points to black's 34.



                What's more, this tournament is giving both sides equal time. That's not completely accurate, as Carlsen had a significant lead on time (though I've forgotten just how much). That implies these results are even too conservative, and that Carlsen may have had a larger lead. Having said that, humans and computers play in very different styles. Because it's winning for a computer doesn't guarantee it's winning for Carlsen (though he's practically a computer anyway), but it does show he had a strong opportunity to win it all in game 12.






                share|improve this answer























                • Thanks. Could you expand your last paragraph into what the consensus is on the position? It's not obvious to me, an outsider. Last time I checked there was roughly an equal number of draws than black wins, with a few white wins. To me that sounds "undecided", but maybe that's not how experts see it.
                  – Martin Argerami
                  Nov 29 at 15:13










                • @MartinArgerami Sure thing! Is that good?
                  – Lord Farquaad
                  Nov 29 at 15:23






                • 1




                  Great answer. Answers both aspects of the question. In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.
                  – Cyriac Antony
                  2 days ago












                • If anyone has the final results (win/loss/draw), would you mind letting me know? I'm running into some issue looking them up
                  – Lord Farquaad
                  2 days ago










                • several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage None of the analyses I've seen have borne out this statement. This was very consistently accurate chess.
                  – Ben Steward
                  22 hours ago













                up vote
                19
                down vote










                up vote
                19
                down vote










                Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was?




                Not quite. As others have pointed out, Carlsen's decision was based on factors outside that one game. With a stronger position and a large time advantage, Carlsen most likely could have won game 12, but Caruana had just tied Carlsen in 11 consecutive games, several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage. Caruana showed he could go toe-to-toe with our Norwegian champion, and so attacking his position would not come without risks.



                Meanwhile, a draw effectively changed the championship to a 4-game Rapid tournament (then Blitz if that ended in a tie), where Carlsen is a heavy favorite. While Carlsen and Caruana are roughly equal in standard chess (2835 and 2832 respectively), Carlsen is much stronger at Rapid (2880 and 2789) and Blitz (2939 and 2767). Why extend a game in an even format when a draw moves to a format you're stronger in?



                Having said that, the Chess community was not happy at all to see that draw offered (source: I was unhappy). I'll concede it was a technically correct decision, but as someone who had been waiting 11 games for a win, seeing one materialize then simply vanish was frustrating. It left a lot of people asking "What would have happened if Carlsen hadn't offered that draw? How would the game have ended?", and that's the question these games are answering.



                In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.



                So far, it's showing Carlsen had a very good lead. Of the games concluded at the time of this edit (and I'll update it after the tournament), black has 22 wins, white has 3, and they've drawn 24 times (If you're looking in the chat, they're occasionally updating the record like this: +3=24-22 . It reads + the number of white wins, = the number of draws, - the number of black wins). If you scored white and black positions like they had in the championship (1 point for a win, .5 for a draw), white would have 15 points to black's 34.



                What's more, this tournament is giving both sides equal time. That's not completely accurate, as Carlsen had a significant lead on time (though I've forgotten just how much). That implies these results are even too conservative, and that Carlsen may have had a larger lead. Having said that, humans and computers play in very different styles. Because it's winning for a computer doesn't guarantee it's winning for Carlsen (though he's practically a computer anyway), but it does show he had a strong opportunity to win it all in game 12.






                share|improve this answer















                Is the tournament leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was?




                Not quite. As others have pointed out, Carlsen's decision was based on factors outside that one game. With a stronger position and a large time advantage, Carlsen most likely could have won game 12, but Caruana had just tied Carlsen in 11 consecutive games, several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage. Caruana showed he could go toe-to-toe with our Norwegian champion, and so attacking his position would not come without risks.



                Meanwhile, a draw effectively changed the championship to a 4-game Rapid tournament (then Blitz if that ended in a tie), where Carlsen is a heavy favorite. While Carlsen and Caruana are roughly equal in standard chess (2835 and 2832 respectively), Carlsen is much stronger at Rapid (2880 and 2789) and Blitz (2939 and 2767). Why extend a game in an even format when a draw moves to a format you're stronger in?



                Having said that, the Chess community was not happy at all to see that draw offered (source: I was unhappy). I'll concede it was a technically correct decision, but as someone who had been waiting 11 games for a win, seeing one materialize then simply vanish was frustrating. It left a lot of people asking "What would have happened if Carlsen hadn't offered that draw? How would the game have ended?", and that's the question these games are answering.



                In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.



                So far, it's showing Carlsen had a very good lead. Of the games concluded at the time of this edit (and I'll update it after the tournament), black has 22 wins, white has 3, and they've drawn 24 times (If you're looking in the chat, they're occasionally updating the record like this: +3=24-22 . It reads + the number of white wins, = the number of draws, - the number of black wins). If you scored white and black positions like they had in the championship (1 point for a win, .5 for a draw), white would have 15 points to black's 34.



                What's more, this tournament is giving both sides equal time. That's not completely accurate, as Carlsen had a significant lead on time (though I've forgotten just how much). That implies these results are even too conservative, and that Carlsen may have had a larger lead. Having said that, humans and computers play in very different styles. Because it's winning for a computer doesn't guarantee it's winning for Carlsen (though he's practically a computer anyway), but it does show he had a strong opportunity to win it all in game 12.







                share|improve this answer














                share|improve this answer



                share|improve this answer








                edited Nov 29 at 15:22

























                answered Nov 29 at 14:33









                Lord Farquaad

                4909




                4909












                • Thanks. Could you expand your last paragraph into what the consensus is on the position? It's not obvious to me, an outsider. Last time I checked there was roughly an equal number of draws than black wins, with a few white wins. To me that sounds "undecided", but maybe that's not how experts see it.
                  – Martin Argerami
                  Nov 29 at 15:13










                • @MartinArgerami Sure thing! Is that good?
                  – Lord Farquaad
                  Nov 29 at 15:23






                • 1




                  Great answer. Answers both aspects of the question. In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.
                  – Cyriac Antony
                  2 days ago












                • If anyone has the final results (win/loss/draw), would you mind letting me know? I'm running into some issue looking them up
                  – Lord Farquaad
                  2 days ago










                • several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage None of the analyses I've seen have borne out this statement. This was very consistently accurate chess.
                  – Ben Steward
                  22 hours ago


















                • Thanks. Could you expand your last paragraph into what the consensus is on the position? It's not obvious to me, an outsider. Last time I checked there was roughly an equal number of draws than black wins, with a few white wins. To me that sounds "undecided", but maybe that's not how experts see it.
                  – Martin Argerami
                  Nov 29 at 15:13










                • @MartinArgerami Sure thing! Is that good?
                  – Lord Farquaad
                  Nov 29 at 15:23






                • 1




                  Great answer. Answers both aspects of the question. In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.
                  – Cyriac Antony
                  2 days ago












                • If anyone has the final results (win/loss/draw), would you mind letting me know? I'm running into some issue looking them up
                  – Lord Farquaad
                  2 days ago










                • several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage None of the analyses I've seen have borne out this statement. This was very consistently accurate chess.
                  – Ben Steward
                  22 hours ago
















                Thanks. Could you expand your last paragraph into what the consensus is on the position? It's not obvious to me, an outsider. Last time I checked there was roughly an equal number of draws than black wins, with a few white wins. To me that sounds "undecided", but maybe that's not how experts see it.
                – Martin Argerami
                Nov 29 at 15:13




                Thanks. Could you expand your last paragraph into what the consensus is on the position? It's not obvious to me, an outsider. Last time I checked there was roughly an equal number of draws than black wins, with a few white wins. To me that sounds "undecided", but maybe that's not how experts see it.
                – Martin Argerami
                Nov 29 at 15:13












                @MartinArgerami Sure thing! Is that good?
                – Lord Farquaad
                Nov 29 at 15:23




                @MartinArgerami Sure thing! Is that good?
                – Lord Farquaad
                Nov 29 at 15:23




                1




                1




                Great answer. Answers both aspects of the question. In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.
                – Cyriac Antony
                2 days ago






                Great answer. Answers both aspects of the question. In other words, the tournament isn't leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's decision was. It's leading to some consensus on how good/bad Carlsen's position was.
                – Cyriac Antony
                2 days ago














                If anyone has the final results (win/loss/draw), would you mind letting me know? I'm running into some issue looking them up
                – Lord Farquaad
                2 days ago




                If anyone has the final results (win/loss/draw), would you mind letting me know? I'm running into some issue looking them up
                – Lord Farquaad
                2 days ago












                several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage None of the analyses I've seen have borne out this statement. This was very consistently accurate chess.
                – Ben Steward
                22 hours ago




                several of which had each player blunder away a significant advantage None of the analyses I've seen have borne out this statement. This was very consistently accurate chess.
                – Ben Steward
                22 hours ago










                up vote
                10
                down vote













                It will not show how good or bad Carlsen's decision was - humans play
                and assess differently from computers; there are positions that are extremely
                easy for computers, but terribly difficult for humans and vice versa.



                So a computer evaluation of ~+1 might not give any chance for a human win
                and in many cases a position with equal computer evaluation is an easy win
                for one side in a human game, most often difficult endgame defence, that
                computer never gets tired and plays perfectly and gets a draw, but human
                can't execute it with tablebase precision.



                I think Carlsen did Very OK, last game before tie-breaks, draw with
                black pieces - and he won the tie-break - that's the best proof that he
                was right :)






                share|improve this answer



























                  up vote
                  10
                  down vote













                  It will not show how good or bad Carlsen's decision was - humans play
                  and assess differently from computers; there are positions that are extremely
                  easy for computers, but terribly difficult for humans and vice versa.



                  So a computer evaluation of ~+1 might not give any chance for a human win
                  and in many cases a position with equal computer evaluation is an easy win
                  for one side in a human game, most often difficult endgame defence, that
                  computer never gets tired and plays perfectly and gets a draw, but human
                  can't execute it with tablebase precision.



                  I think Carlsen did Very OK, last game before tie-breaks, draw with
                  black pieces - and he won the tie-break - that's the best proof that he
                  was right :)






                  share|improve this answer

























                    up vote
                    10
                    down vote










                    up vote
                    10
                    down vote









                    It will not show how good or bad Carlsen's decision was - humans play
                    and assess differently from computers; there are positions that are extremely
                    easy for computers, but terribly difficult for humans and vice versa.



                    So a computer evaluation of ~+1 might not give any chance for a human win
                    and in many cases a position with equal computer evaluation is an easy win
                    for one side in a human game, most often difficult endgame defence, that
                    computer never gets tired and plays perfectly and gets a draw, but human
                    can't execute it with tablebase precision.



                    I think Carlsen did Very OK, last game before tie-breaks, draw with
                    black pieces - and he won the tie-break - that's the best proof that he
                    was right :)






                    share|improve this answer














                    It will not show how good or bad Carlsen's decision was - humans play
                    and assess differently from computers; there are positions that are extremely
                    easy for computers, but terribly difficult for humans and vice versa.



                    So a computer evaluation of ~+1 might not give any chance for a human win
                    and in many cases a position with equal computer evaluation is an easy win
                    for one side in a human game, most often difficult endgame defence, that
                    computer never gets tired and plays perfectly and gets a draw, but human
                    can't execute it with tablebase precision.



                    I think Carlsen did Very OK, last game before tie-breaks, draw with
                    black pieces - and he won the tie-break - that's the best proof that he
                    was right :)







                    share|improve this answer














                    share|improve this answer



                    share|improve this answer








                    edited 2 days ago

























                    answered Nov 29 at 7:37









                    Drako

                    3248




                    3248






















                        up vote
                        6
                        down vote













                        The classic game rating of Carlsen and Caruana is very close (3 points difference!). But rapid game rating is another story. The rating point difference is a whooping 100 points. Carlsen's strategy throughout this whole tournament was along these lines - beat me if you can in classic. If you don't, I will sweep you off in the rapid games. And he did exactly that. Sure, Caruana is a quality player; but playing under time pressure, not to mention pressure in playing for World Championshiop, is a totally different thing.



                        So, Carlsen has no need to risk anything; (yet, it was Caruana who looked more happy after draw was agreed in game 12. This is quite understandable since Carlsen had the advantage in the game.)






                        share|improve this answer



















                        • 8




                          This does not provide an answer to OP's actual question about the purpose of 2x round robin tournament of top 8 chess engines (starting from move 31 of game 12) being organized by chess.com
                          – RedBaron
                          Nov 29 at 11:35

















                        up vote
                        6
                        down vote













                        The classic game rating of Carlsen and Caruana is very close (3 points difference!). But rapid game rating is another story. The rating point difference is a whooping 100 points. Carlsen's strategy throughout this whole tournament was along these lines - beat me if you can in classic. If you don't, I will sweep you off in the rapid games. And he did exactly that. Sure, Caruana is a quality player; but playing under time pressure, not to mention pressure in playing for World Championshiop, is a totally different thing.



                        So, Carlsen has no need to risk anything; (yet, it was Caruana who looked more happy after draw was agreed in game 12. This is quite understandable since Carlsen had the advantage in the game.)






                        share|improve this answer



















                        • 8




                          This does not provide an answer to OP's actual question about the purpose of 2x round robin tournament of top 8 chess engines (starting from move 31 of game 12) being organized by chess.com
                          – RedBaron
                          Nov 29 at 11:35















                        up vote
                        6
                        down vote










                        up vote
                        6
                        down vote









                        The classic game rating of Carlsen and Caruana is very close (3 points difference!). But rapid game rating is another story. The rating point difference is a whooping 100 points. Carlsen's strategy throughout this whole tournament was along these lines - beat me if you can in classic. If you don't, I will sweep you off in the rapid games. And he did exactly that. Sure, Caruana is a quality player; but playing under time pressure, not to mention pressure in playing for World Championshiop, is a totally different thing.



                        So, Carlsen has no need to risk anything; (yet, it was Caruana who looked more happy after draw was agreed in game 12. This is quite understandable since Carlsen had the advantage in the game.)






                        share|improve this answer














                        The classic game rating of Carlsen and Caruana is very close (3 points difference!). But rapid game rating is another story. The rating point difference is a whooping 100 points. Carlsen's strategy throughout this whole tournament was along these lines - beat me if you can in classic. If you don't, I will sweep you off in the rapid games. And he did exactly that. Sure, Caruana is a quality player; but playing under time pressure, not to mention pressure in playing for World Championshiop, is a totally different thing.



                        So, Carlsen has no need to risk anything; (yet, it was Caruana who looked more happy after draw was agreed in game 12. This is quite understandable since Carlsen had the advantage in the game.)







                        share|improve this answer














                        share|improve this answer



                        share|improve this answer








                        edited Nov 29 at 9:18









                        Glorfindel

                        12.5k43558




                        12.5k43558










                        answered Nov 29 at 9:06









                        Cyriac Antony

                        614




                        614








                        • 8




                          This does not provide an answer to OP's actual question about the purpose of 2x round robin tournament of top 8 chess engines (starting from move 31 of game 12) being organized by chess.com
                          – RedBaron
                          Nov 29 at 11:35
















                        • 8




                          This does not provide an answer to OP's actual question about the purpose of 2x round robin tournament of top 8 chess engines (starting from move 31 of game 12) being organized by chess.com
                          – RedBaron
                          Nov 29 at 11:35










                        8




                        8




                        This does not provide an answer to OP's actual question about the purpose of 2x round robin tournament of top 8 chess engines (starting from move 31 of game 12) being organized by chess.com
                        – RedBaron
                        Nov 29 at 11:35






                        This does not provide an answer to OP's actual question about the purpose of 2x round robin tournament of top 8 chess engines (starting from move 31 of game 12) being organized by chess.com
                        – RedBaron
                        Nov 29 at 11:35












                        up vote
                        2
                        down vote













                        As Lord Farquaad points out, the tournament will only show how good Carlsen's position was, not how good his decision was. That said, his position was pretty damned good, if the computers can be believed: so far 49 games have been played, and the score is 23 Black wins to 3 White wins, with 23 draws.






                        share|improve this answer

























                          up vote
                          2
                          down vote













                          As Lord Farquaad points out, the tournament will only show how good Carlsen's position was, not how good his decision was. That said, his position was pretty damned good, if the computers can be believed: so far 49 games have been played, and the score is 23 Black wins to 3 White wins, with 23 draws.






                          share|improve this answer























                            up vote
                            2
                            down vote










                            up vote
                            2
                            down vote









                            As Lord Farquaad points out, the tournament will only show how good Carlsen's position was, not how good his decision was. That said, his position was pretty damned good, if the computers can be believed: so far 49 games have been played, and the score is 23 Black wins to 3 White wins, with 23 draws.






                            share|improve this answer












                            As Lord Farquaad points out, the tournament will only show how good Carlsen's position was, not how good his decision was. That said, his position was pretty damned good, if the computers can be believed: so far 49 games have been played, and the score is 23 Black wins to 3 White wins, with 23 draws.







                            share|improve this answer












                            share|improve this answer



                            share|improve this answer










                            answered Nov 29 at 15:15









                            TonyK

                            21114




                            21114






















                                up vote
                                2
                                down vote













                                The engine tournament is absolutely pointless. Engines don't make mistakes and they are far better at pushing in advantageous positions. Even then black still managed to lose games.



                                Carlsen's decision was absolutely the right one for the highest probability of holding the title. Realistically in a GM game black probably had around a 20% chance of winning and a 10% chance of losing at best. Instead he goes for the tiebreakers where he as a 75%+ chance of winning that with his elo advantage.






                                share|improve this answer





















                                • Engines do make mistakes, or else they wouldn't lose (just draw).
                                  – Jossie Calderon
                                  10 hours ago















                                up vote
                                2
                                down vote













                                The engine tournament is absolutely pointless. Engines don't make mistakes and they are far better at pushing in advantageous positions. Even then black still managed to lose games.



                                Carlsen's decision was absolutely the right one for the highest probability of holding the title. Realistically in a GM game black probably had around a 20% chance of winning and a 10% chance of losing at best. Instead he goes for the tiebreakers where he as a 75%+ chance of winning that with his elo advantage.






                                share|improve this answer





















                                • Engines do make mistakes, or else they wouldn't lose (just draw).
                                  – Jossie Calderon
                                  10 hours ago













                                up vote
                                2
                                down vote










                                up vote
                                2
                                down vote









                                The engine tournament is absolutely pointless. Engines don't make mistakes and they are far better at pushing in advantageous positions. Even then black still managed to lose games.



                                Carlsen's decision was absolutely the right one for the highest probability of holding the title. Realistically in a GM game black probably had around a 20% chance of winning and a 10% chance of losing at best. Instead he goes for the tiebreakers where he as a 75%+ chance of winning that with his elo advantage.






                                share|improve this answer












                                The engine tournament is absolutely pointless. Engines don't make mistakes and they are far better at pushing in advantageous positions. Even then black still managed to lose games.



                                Carlsen's decision was absolutely the right one for the highest probability of holding the title. Realistically in a GM game black probably had around a 20% chance of winning and a 10% chance of losing at best. Instead he goes for the tiebreakers where he as a 75%+ chance of winning that with his elo advantage.







                                share|improve this answer












                                share|improve this answer



                                share|improve this answer










                                answered Nov 29 at 19:44









                                Matthew Liu

                                63546




                                63546












                                • Engines do make mistakes, or else they wouldn't lose (just draw).
                                  – Jossie Calderon
                                  10 hours ago


















                                • Engines do make mistakes, or else they wouldn't lose (just draw).
                                  – Jossie Calderon
                                  10 hours ago
















                                Engines do make mistakes, or else they wouldn't lose (just draw).
                                – Jossie Calderon
                                10 hours ago




                                Engines do make mistakes, or else they wouldn't lose (just draw).
                                – Jossie Calderon
                                10 hours ago


















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