I have 100 boxes. C of them have a gift. I can open up to 16 boxes. What is the number of C that will give me...











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9
down vote

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Details:
We start by opening a box. If nothing is in there, we open another one. Once we find a gift, we can stop. Each empty box that was opened is discarded (no revisit).
I can find the number of $C$ that will give probability over $0.5$ by writing a program to try for $C=1, C=2$ .. etc.. , but I can't solve the equation for $C$ to find a more "mathematical" and elegant answer.



My work until now is:



1) Found in 1st box: $P(1) = frac{C}{N}$



2) Found in 2nd box: $P(2) = frac{1-C}{N}cdotfrac{C}{N-1}$



4) Found in 3rd box: $P(3) = frac{1-C}{N}cdotfrac{1-C/}{N-1}cdotfrac{C}{N-2}$



Etc...



Adding them up makes things very complicated to solve for $C$.



Any ideas? Thank you in advance!










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  • There are $binom {100}6$ ways to choose $6$ boxes. How many ways are there to choose $6$ empty boxes?
    – lulu
    Nov 18 at 12:39












  • Thanks for your response lulu! I do know that, but still it can not be solved for C. Again, this approach will require to try for consecutive values of C in order to find the needed value. Thanks though! :)
    – XuUserAC
    Nov 18 at 12:42






  • 3




    Should the question in the title really be "What is the the minimum number of C..."?
    – Randall Stewart
    Nov 18 at 20:04






  • 2




    This kind of sounds like a software developer’s question about how to rig their game’s loot boxes.
    – Josh Detwiler
    Nov 19 at 4:05






  • 1




    I wouldnt bother opening them. They are all sweaters.
    – Keltari
    Nov 19 at 8:51















up vote
9
down vote

favorite
3












Details:
We start by opening a box. If nothing is in there, we open another one. Once we find a gift, we can stop. Each empty box that was opened is discarded (no revisit).
I can find the number of $C$ that will give probability over $0.5$ by writing a program to try for $C=1, C=2$ .. etc.. , but I can't solve the equation for $C$ to find a more "mathematical" and elegant answer.



My work until now is:



1) Found in 1st box: $P(1) = frac{C}{N}$



2) Found in 2nd box: $P(2) = frac{1-C}{N}cdotfrac{C}{N-1}$



4) Found in 3rd box: $P(3) = frac{1-C}{N}cdotfrac{1-C/}{N-1}cdotfrac{C}{N-2}$



Etc...



Adding them up makes things very complicated to solve for $C$.



Any ideas? Thank you in advance!










share|cite|improve this question
























  • There are $binom {100}6$ ways to choose $6$ boxes. How many ways are there to choose $6$ empty boxes?
    – lulu
    Nov 18 at 12:39












  • Thanks for your response lulu! I do know that, but still it can not be solved for C. Again, this approach will require to try for consecutive values of C in order to find the needed value. Thanks though! :)
    – XuUserAC
    Nov 18 at 12:42






  • 3




    Should the question in the title really be "What is the the minimum number of C..."?
    – Randall Stewart
    Nov 18 at 20:04






  • 2




    This kind of sounds like a software developer’s question about how to rig their game’s loot boxes.
    – Josh Detwiler
    Nov 19 at 4:05






  • 1




    I wouldnt bother opening them. They are all sweaters.
    – Keltari
    Nov 19 at 8:51













up vote
9
down vote

favorite
3









up vote
9
down vote

favorite
3






3





Details:
We start by opening a box. If nothing is in there, we open another one. Once we find a gift, we can stop. Each empty box that was opened is discarded (no revisit).
I can find the number of $C$ that will give probability over $0.5$ by writing a program to try for $C=1, C=2$ .. etc.. , but I can't solve the equation for $C$ to find a more "mathematical" and elegant answer.



My work until now is:



1) Found in 1st box: $P(1) = frac{C}{N}$



2) Found in 2nd box: $P(2) = frac{1-C}{N}cdotfrac{C}{N-1}$



4) Found in 3rd box: $P(3) = frac{1-C}{N}cdotfrac{1-C/}{N-1}cdotfrac{C}{N-2}$



Etc...



Adding them up makes things very complicated to solve for $C$.



Any ideas? Thank you in advance!










share|cite|improve this question















Details:
We start by opening a box. If nothing is in there, we open another one. Once we find a gift, we can stop. Each empty box that was opened is discarded (no revisit).
I can find the number of $C$ that will give probability over $0.5$ by writing a program to try for $C=1, C=2$ .. etc.. , but I can't solve the equation for $C$ to find a more "mathematical" and elegant answer.



My work until now is:



1) Found in 1st box: $P(1) = frac{C}{N}$



2) Found in 2nd box: $P(2) = frac{1-C}{N}cdotfrac{C}{N-1}$



4) Found in 3rd box: $P(3) = frac{1-C}{N}cdotfrac{1-C/}{N-1}cdotfrac{C}{N-2}$



Etc...



Adding them up makes things very complicated to solve for $C$.



Any ideas? Thank you in advance!







probability probability-theory






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edited Nov 18 at 13:04









amWhy

191k27223439




191k27223439










asked Nov 18 at 12:36









XuUserAC

543




543












  • There are $binom {100}6$ ways to choose $6$ boxes. How many ways are there to choose $6$ empty boxes?
    – lulu
    Nov 18 at 12:39












  • Thanks for your response lulu! I do know that, but still it can not be solved for C. Again, this approach will require to try for consecutive values of C in order to find the needed value. Thanks though! :)
    – XuUserAC
    Nov 18 at 12:42






  • 3




    Should the question in the title really be "What is the the minimum number of C..."?
    – Randall Stewart
    Nov 18 at 20:04






  • 2




    This kind of sounds like a software developer’s question about how to rig their game’s loot boxes.
    – Josh Detwiler
    Nov 19 at 4:05






  • 1




    I wouldnt bother opening them. They are all sweaters.
    – Keltari
    Nov 19 at 8:51


















  • There are $binom {100}6$ ways to choose $6$ boxes. How many ways are there to choose $6$ empty boxes?
    – lulu
    Nov 18 at 12:39












  • Thanks for your response lulu! I do know that, but still it can not be solved for C. Again, this approach will require to try for consecutive values of C in order to find the needed value. Thanks though! :)
    – XuUserAC
    Nov 18 at 12:42






  • 3




    Should the question in the title really be "What is the the minimum number of C..."?
    – Randall Stewart
    Nov 18 at 20:04






  • 2




    This kind of sounds like a software developer’s question about how to rig their game’s loot boxes.
    – Josh Detwiler
    Nov 19 at 4:05






  • 1




    I wouldnt bother opening them. They are all sweaters.
    – Keltari
    Nov 19 at 8:51
















There are $binom {100}6$ ways to choose $6$ boxes. How many ways are there to choose $6$ empty boxes?
– lulu
Nov 18 at 12:39






There are $binom {100}6$ ways to choose $6$ boxes. How many ways are there to choose $6$ empty boxes?
– lulu
Nov 18 at 12:39














Thanks for your response lulu! I do know that, but still it can not be solved for C. Again, this approach will require to try for consecutive values of C in order to find the needed value. Thanks though! :)
– XuUserAC
Nov 18 at 12:42




Thanks for your response lulu! I do know that, but still it can not be solved for C. Again, this approach will require to try for consecutive values of C in order to find the needed value. Thanks though! :)
– XuUserAC
Nov 18 at 12:42




3




3




Should the question in the title really be "What is the the minimum number of C..."?
– Randall Stewart
Nov 18 at 20:04




Should the question in the title really be "What is the the minimum number of C..."?
– Randall Stewart
Nov 18 at 20:04




2




2




This kind of sounds like a software developer’s question about how to rig their game’s loot boxes.
– Josh Detwiler
Nov 19 at 4:05




This kind of sounds like a software developer’s question about how to rig their game’s loot boxes.
– Josh Detwiler
Nov 19 at 4:05




1




1




I wouldnt bother opening them. They are all sweaters.
– Keltari
Nov 19 at 8:51




I wouldnt bother opening them. They are all sweaters.
– Keltari
Nov 19 at 8:51










4 Answers
4






active

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up vote
19
down vote













Start with a rough estimate: If the box contents were independent, the probability of losing would be $(1-C/100)^{16}$. Equating this to $0.5$ gives us $Capprox 4.2$.



Hence, we boldly check the cases $C=4$:
$C=4$ leads to a losing probability of $$frac{96choose 16}{100choose 16}=frac{96!84!}{80!100!}=frac{84cdot 83cdot 82cdot 81}{100cdot 99cdot 98cdot 97}approx 0.492$$
so a winning probability slightly above $frac12$. A close look reveals that $C=3$ leads to a winning probability below $frac12$, so the correct answer is $C=4$.





Note that the "true" breaking point is thus between $3$ and $4$, not between $4$ and $5$ as the rough estimate suggested - the box contents are not independent after all (namely, if you find a - rare - gift, the probability of finding a gift in another box falls dramatically).






share|cite|improve this answer




























    up vote
    6
    down vote













    As pointed out in the comments, finding the chance of not getting a gift is rather easier, though the patterns involved assist with the computation. Suppose we had six, rather than sixteen, to choose. We have $$binom {100}{6}=frac {100!}{6!94!}=frac {100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six boxes, and $$binom {100-C}{6}=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six empty ones, so the probability of an empty box is $$p=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}$$



    Now setting this equal to $0.5$ we get a sextic for $C$. The numerator is monotone in $C$ so we know that trial can work. Can we do better? Well if we take $q=frac {98-C}{98}$ we can estimate the probability as $p=q^6$, and that gives us a potential starting place for trial to reduce the amount of effort involved.



    [I see there is another solution which works with a simpler, but slightly different, estimate]






    share|cite|improve this answer























    • Given the symmetry, isn't $q=frac {97.5-C}{97.5}$ an even better approximation? Then $C approx 97.5(1-q)$ . Also, might as well develop the full expression for 16, not 6.
      – smci
      Nov 19 at 10:45












    • @smci Yes indeed. At the time I was writing this there was not much in the way of answer and discussion, so I didn't give a direct answer to the question which was being asked, but rather an indication of how to go about it, so that the person who asked the question would have to think about it a little more. Also there was an original focus on integers. But both your suggestions are good.
      – Mark Bennet
      Nov 19 at 14:31












    • And since there were 16 boxes not 6, the arithmetic midpoint would be 92.5
      – smci
      Nov 19 at 14:42




















    up vote
    2
    down vote













    As with a lot of binomial problems, the easiest way to calculate the probability of success from N tries is to start by calculating the probability of N failures and subtracting the answer from 1.



    The probability of opening 16 empty boxes (and thus failing to find a prize) in this case is:



    $frac{100-Cchoose 16}{100choose 16}
    = frac{(100-C)!}{16!(84-C)!}frac{16!84!}{100!}
    = frac{(100-C)!84!}{100!(84-C)!}
    = frac{84×83×...×(85-C)}{100×99×...×(101-C)}
    = frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}×...×frac{85-C}{101-C}
    $



    At this point we can proceed by trial and error multiplying by one term at a time.



    For C=1 we get $frac{84}{100}$ which is clearly $>frac{1}{2}$



    For C=2, $frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}=frac{6972}{9900} approx 0.704$



    For C=3, $frac{6972}{9900}×frac{82}{98} approx 0.589$



    For C=4, $0.589...×frac{81}{97} approx 0.492$



    So the minimum C for which the probability of losing drops below 0.5 (and thus the winning probability is above 0.5) is 4.






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      up vote
      -1
      down vote













      An alternative approach is to work in base 10 logarithms. Chance of failing on 16 tries is



      $displaystyle f(C) = left(frac{100-C}{100}right) times
      left(frac{99-C}{99}right) times
      left(frac{98-C}{98}right) times cdots times
      left(frac{85-C}{85}right).
      $



      Assume that you've written a computer program that calculates
      $;log_{10}n;$ for $nin{30, 31, cdots, 100}.$



      Then it becomes a simple matter to calculate
      $;g(C) = log_{10}f(C).$






      share|cite|improve this answer





















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        4 Answers
        4






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        4 Answers
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        up vote
        19
        down vote













        Start with a rough estimate: If the box contents were independent, the probability of losing would be $(1-C/100)^{16}$. Equating this to $0.5$ gives us $Capprox 4.2$.



        Hence, we boldly check the cases $C=4$:
        $C=4$ leads to a losing probability of $$frac{96choose 16}{100choose 16}=frac{96!84!}{80!100!}=frac{84cdot 83cdot 82cdot 81}{100cdot 99cdot 98cdot 97}approx 0.492$$
        so a winning probability slightly above $frac12$. A close look reveals that $C=3$ leads to a winning probability below $frac12$, so the correct answer is $C=4$.





        Note that the "true" breaking point is thus between $3$ and $4$, not between $4$ and $5$ as the rough estimate suggested - the box contents are not independent after all (namely, if you find a - rare - gift, the probability of finding a gift in another box falls dramatically).






        share|cite|improve this answer

























          up vote
          19
          down vote













          Start with a rough estimate: If the box contents were independent, the probability of losing would be $(1-C/100)^{16}$. Equating this to $0.5$ gives us $Capprox 4.2$.



          Hence, we boldly check the cases $C=4$:
          $C=4$ leads to a losing probability of $$frac{96choose 16}{100choose 16}=frac{96!84!}{80!100!}=frac{84cdot 83cdot 82cdot 81}{100cdot 99cdot 98cdot 97}approx 0.492$$
          so a winning probability slightly above $frac12$. A close look reveals that $C=3$ leads to a winning probability below $frac12$, so the correct answer is $C=4$.





          Note that the "true" breaking point is thus between $3$ and $4$, not between $4$ and $5$ as the rough estimate suggested - the box contents are not independent after all (namely, if you find a - rare - gift, the probability of finding a gift in another box falls dramatically).






          share|cite|improve this answer























            up vote
            19
            down vote










            up vote
            19
            down vote









            Start with a rough estimate: If the box contents were independent, the probability of losing would be $(1-C/100)^{16}$. Equating this to $0.5$ gives us $Capprox 4.2$.



            Hence, we boldly check the cases $C=4$:
            $C=4$ leads to a losing probability of $$frac{96choose 16}{100choose 16}=frac{96!84!}{80!100!}=frac{84cdot 83cdot 82cdot 81}{100cdot 99cdot 98cdot 97}approx 0.492$$
            so a winning probability slightly above $frac12$. A close look reveals that $C=3$ leads to a winning probability below $frac12$, so the correct answer is $C=4$.





            Note that the "true" breaking point is thus between $3$ and $4$, not between $4$ and $5$ as the rough estimate suggested - the box contents are not independent after all (namely, if you find a - rare - gift, the probability of finding a gift in another box falls dramatically).






            share|cite|improve this answer












            Start with a rough estimate: If the box contents were independent, the probability of losing would be $(1-C/100)^{16}$. Equating this to $0.5$ gives us $Capprox 4.2$.



            Hence, we boldly check the cases $C=4$:
            $C=4$ leads to a losing probability of $$frac{96choose 16}{100choose 16}=frac{96!84!}{80!100!}=frac{84cdot 83cdot 82cdot 81}{100cdot 99cdot 98cdot 97}approx 0.492$$
            so a winning probability slightly above $frac12$. A close look reveals that $C=3$ leads to a winning probability below $frac12$, so the correct answer is $C=4$.





            Note that the "true" breaking point is thus between $3$ and $4$, not between $4$ and $5$ as the rough estimate suggested - the box contents are not independent after all (namely, if you find a - rare - gift, the probability of finding a gift in another box falls dramatically).







            share|cite|improve this answer












            share|cite|improve this answer



            share|cite|improve this answer










            answered Nov 18 at 13:12









            Hagen von Eitzen

            275k21266494




            275k21266494






















                up vote
                6
                down vote













                As pointed out in the comments, finding the chance of not getting a gift is rather easier, though the patterns involved assist with the computation. Suppose we had six, rather than sixteen, to choose. We have $$binom {100}{6}=frac {100!}{6!94!}=frac {100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six boxes, and $$binom {100-C}{6}=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six empty ones, so the probability of an empty box is $$p=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}$$



                Now setting this equal to $0.5$ we get a sextic for $C$. The numerator is monotone in $C$ so we know that trial can work. Can we do better? Well if we take $q=frac {98-C}{98}$ we can estimate the probability as $p=q^6$, and that gives us a potential starting place for trial to reduce the amount of effort involved.



                [I see there is another solution which works with a simpler, but slightly different, estimate]






                share|cite|improve this answer























                • Given the symmetry, isn't $q=frac {97.5-C}{97.5}$ an even better approximation? Then $C approx 97.5(1-q)$ . Also, might as well develop the full expression for 16, not 6.
                  – smci
                  Nov 19 at 10:45












                • @smci Yes indeed. At the time I was writing this there was not much in the way of answer and discussion, so I didn't give a direct answer to the question which was being asked, but rather an indication of how to go about it, so that the person who asked the question would have to think about it a little more. Also there was an original focus on integers. But both your suggestions are good.
                  – Mark Bennet
                  Nov 19 at 14:31












                • And since there were 16 boxes not 6, the arithmetic midpoint would be 92.5
                  – smci
                  Nov 19 at 14:42

















                up vote
                6
                down vote













                As pointed out in the comments, finding the chance of not getting a gift is rather easier, though the patterns involved assist with the computation. Suppose we had six, rather than sixteen, to choose. We have $$binom {100}{6}=frac {100!}{6!94!}=frac {100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six boxes, and $$binom {100-C}{6}=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six empty ones, so the probability of an empty box is $$p=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}$$



                Now setting this equal to $0.5$ we get a sextic for $C$. The numerator is monotone in $C$ so we know that trial can work. Can we do better? Well if we take $q=frac {98-C}{98}$ we can estimate the probability as $p=q^6$, and that gives us a potential starting place for trial to reduce the amount of effort involved.



                [I see there is another solution which works with a simpler, but slightly different, estimate]






                share|cite|improve this answer























                • Given the symmetry, isn't $q=frac {97.5-C}{97.5}$ an even better approximation? Then $C approx 97.5(1-q)$ . Also, might as well develop the full expression for 16, not 6.
                  – smci
                  Nov 19 at 10:45












                • @smci Yes indeed. At the time I was writing this there was not much in the way of answer and discussion, so I didn't give a direct answer to the question which was being asked, but rather an indication of how to go about it, so that the person who asked the question would have to think about it a little more. Also there was an original focus on integers. But both your suggestions are good.
                  – Mark Bennet
                  Nov 19 at 14:31












                • And since there were 16 boxes not 6, the arithmetic midpoint would be 92.5
                  – smci
                  Nov 19 at 14:42















                up vote
                6
                down vote










                up vote
                6
                down vote









                As pointed out in the comments, finding the chance of not getting a gift is rather easier, though the patterns involved assist with the computation. Suppose we had six, rather than sixteen, to choose. We have $$binom {100}{6}=frac {100!}{6!94!}=frac {100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six boxes, and $$binom {100-C}{6}=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six empty ones, so the probability of an empty box is $$p=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}$$



                Now setting this equal to $0.5$ we get a sextic for $C$. The numerator is monotone in $C$ so we know that trial can work. Can we do better? Well if we take $q=frac {98-C}{98}$ we can estimate the probability as $p=q^6$, and that gives us a potential starting place for trial to reduce the amount of effort involved.



                [I see there is another solution which works with a simpler, but slightly different, estimate]






                share|cite|improve this answer














                As pointed out in the comments, finding the chance of not getting a gift is rather easier, though the patterns involved assist with the computation. Suppose we had six, rather than sixteen, to choose. We have $$binom {100}{6}=frac {100!}{6!94!}=frac {100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six boxes, and $$binom {100-C}{6}=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{6!}$$ ways of choosing six empty ones, so the probability of an empty box is $$p=frac {(100-C)cdot (99-C) cdot (98-C)cdot (97-C)cdot (96-C)cdot (95-C)}{100cdot 99 cdot 98cdot 97cdot 96cdot 95}$$



                Now setting this equal to $0.5$ we get a sextic for $C$. The numerator is monotone in $C$ so we know that trial can work. Can we do better? Well if we take $q=frac {98-C}{98}$ we can estimate the probability as $p=q^6$, and that gives us a potential starting place for trial to reduce the amount of effort involved.



                [I see there is another solution which works with a simpler, but slightly different, estimate]







                share|cite|improve this answer














                share|cite|improve this answer



                share|cite|improve this answer








                edited Nov 19 at 6:53

























                answered Nov 18 at 13:22









                Mark Bennet

                80k980178




                80k980178












                • Given the symmetry, isn't $q=frac {97.5-C}{97.5}$ an even better approximation? Then $C approx 97.5(1-q)$ . Also, might as well develop the full expression for 16, not 6.
                  – smci
                  Nov 19 at 10:45












                • @smci Yes indeed. At the time I was writing this there was not much in the way of answer and discussion, so I didn't give a direct answer to the question which was being asked, but rather an indication of how to go about it, so that the person who asked the question would have to think about it a little more. Also there was an original focus on integers. But both your suggestions are good.
                  – Mark Bennet
                  Nov 19 at 14:31












                • And since there were 16 boxes not 6, the arithmetic midpoint would be 92.5
                  – smci
                  Nov 19 at 14:42




















                • Given the symmetry, isn't $q=frac {97.5-C}{97.5}$ an even better approximation? Then $C approx 97.5(1-q)$ . Also, might as well develop the full expression for 16, not 6.
                  – smci
                  Nov 19 at 10:45












                • @smci Yes indeed. At the time I was writing this there was not much in the way of answer and discussion, so I didn't give a direct answer to the question which was being asked, but rather an indication of how to go about it, so that the person who asked the question would have to think about it a little more. Also there was an original focus on integers. But both your suggestions are good.
                  – Mark Bennet
                  Nov 19 at 14:31












                • And since there were 16 boxes not 6, the arithmetic midpoint would be 92.5
                  – smci
                  Nov 19 at 14:42


















                Given the symmetry, isn't $q=frac {97.5-C}{97.5}$ an even better approximation? Then $C approx 97.5(1-q)$ . Also, might as well develop the full expression for 16, not 6.
                – smci
                Nov 19 at 10:45






                Given the symmetry, isn't $q=frac {97.5-C}{97.5}$ an even better approximation? Then $C approx 97.5(1-q)$ . Also, might as well develop the full expression for 16, not 6.
                – smci
                Nov 19 at 10:45














                @smci Yes indeed. At the time I was writing this there was not much in the way of answer and discussion, so I didn't give a direct answer to the question which was being asked, but rather an indication of how to go about it, so that the person who asked the question would have to think about it a little more. Also there was an original focus on integers. But both your suggestions are good.
                – Mark Bennet
                Nov 19 at 14:31






                @smci Yes indeed. At the time I was writing this there was not much in the way of answer and discussion, so I didn't give a direct answer to the question which was being asked, but rather an indication of how to go about it, so that the person who asked the question would have to think about it a little more. Also there was an original focus on integers. But both your suggestions are good.
                – Mark Bennet
                Nov 19 at 14:31














                And since there were 16 boxes not 6, the arithmetic midpoint would be 92.5
                – smci
                Nov 19 at 14:42






                And since there were 16 boxes not 6, the arithmetic midpoint would be 92.5
                – smci
                Nov 19 at 14:42












                up vote
                2
                down vote













                As with a lot of binomial problems, the easiest way to calculate the probability of success from N tries is to start by calculating the probability of N failures and subtracting the answer from 1.



                The probability of opening 16 empty boxes (and thus failing to find a prize) in this case is:



                $frac{100-Cchoose 16}{100choose 16}
                = frac{(100-C)!}{16!(84-C)!}frac{16!84!}{100!}
                = frac{(100-C)!84!}{100!(84-C)!}
                = frac{84×83×...×(85-C)}{100×99×...×(101-C)}
                = frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}×...×frac{85-C}{101-C}
                $



                At this point we can proceed by trial and error multiplying by one term at a time.



                For C=1 we get $frac{84}{100}$ which is clearly $>frac{1}{2}$



                For C=2, $frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}=frac{6972}{9900} approx 0.704$



                For C=3, $frac{6972}{9900}×frac{82}{98} approx 0.589$



                For C=4, $0.589...×frac{81}{97} approx 0.492$



                So the minimum C for which the probability of losing drops below 0.5 (and thus the winning probability is above 0.5) is 4.






                share|cite|improve this answer

























                  up vote
                  2
                  down vote













                  As with a lot of binomial problems, the easiest way to calculate the probability of success from N tries is to start by calculating the probability of N failures and subtracting the answer from 1.



                  The probability of opening 16 empty boxes (and thus failing to find a prize) in this case is:



                  $frac{100-Cchoose 16}{100choose 16}
                  = frac{(100-C)!}{16!(84-C)!}frac{16!84!}{100!}
                  = frac{(100-C)!84!}{100!(84-C)!}
                  = frac{84×83×...×(85-C)}{100×99×...×(101-C)}
                  = frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}×...×frac{85-C}{101-C}
                  $



                  At this point we can proceed by trial and error multiplying by one term at a time.



                  For C=1 we get $frac{84}{100}$ which is clearly $>frac{1}{2}$



                  For C=2, $frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}=frac{6972}{9900} approx 0.704$



                  For C=3, $frac{6972}{9900}×frac{82}{98} approx 0.589$



                  For C=4, $0.589...×frac{81}{97} approx 0.492$



                  So the minimum C for which the probability of losing drops below 0.5 (and thus the winning probability is above 0.5) is 4.






                  share|cite|improve this answer























                    up vote
                    2
                    down vote










                    up vote
                    2
                    down vote









                    As with a lot of binomial problems, the easiest way to calculate the probability of success from N tries is to start by calculating the probability of N failures and subtracting the answer from 1.



                    The probability of opening 16 empty boxes (and thus failing to find a prize) in this case is:



                    $frac{100-Cchoose 16}{100choose 16}
                    = frac{(100-C)!}{16!(84-C)!}frac{16!84!}{100!}
                    = frac{(100-C)!84!}{100!(84-C)!}
                    = frac{84×83×...×(85-C)}{100×99×...×(101-C)}
                    = frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}×...×frac{85-C}{101-C}
                    $



                    At this point we can proceed by trial and error multiplying by one term at a time.



                    For C=1 we get $frac{84}{100}$ which is clearly $>frac{1}{2}$



                    For C=2, $frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}=frac{6972}{9900} approx 0.704$



                    For C=3, $frac{6972}{9900}×frac{82}{98} approx 0.589$



                    For C=4, $0.589...×frac{81}{97} approx 0.492$



                    So the minimum C for which the probability of losing drops below 0.5 (and thus the winning probability is above 0.5) is 4.






                    share|cite|improve this answer












                    As with a lot of binomial problems, the easiest way to calculate the probability of success from N tries is to start by calculating the probability of N failures and subtracting the answer from 1.



                    The probability of opening 16 empty boxes (and thus failing to find a prize) in this case is:



                    $frac{100-Cchoose 16}{100choose 16}
                    = frac{(100-C)!}{16!(84-C)!}frac{16!84!}{100!}
                    = frac{(100-C)!84!}{100!(84-C)!}
                    = frac{84×83×...×(85-C)}{100×99×...×(101-C)}
                    = frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}×...×frac{85-C}{101-C}
                    $



                    At this point we can proceed by trial and error multiplying by one term at a time.



                    For C=1 we get $frac{84}{100}$ which is clearly $>frac{1}{2}$



                    For C=2, $frac{84}{100}×frac{83}{99}=frac{6972}{9900} approx 0.704$



                    For C=3, $frac{6972}{9900}×frac{82}{98} approx 0.589$



                    For C=4, $0.589...×frac{81}{97} approx 0.492$



                    So the minimum C for which the probability of losing drops below 0.5 (and thus the winning probability is above 0.5) is 4.







                    share|cite|improve this answer












                    share|cite|improve this answer



                    share|cite|improve this answer










                    answered Nov 19 at 7:09









                    IanF1

                    1,324812




                    1,324812






















                        up vote
                        -1
                        down vote













                        An alternative approach is to work in base 10 logarithms. Chance of failing on 16 tries is



                        $displaystyle f(C) = left(frac{100-C}{100}right) times
                        left(frac{99-C}{99}right) times
                        left(frac{98-C}{98}right) times cdots times
                        left(frac{85-C}{85}right).
                        $



                        Assume that you've written a computer program that calculates
                        $;log_{10}n;$ for $nin{30, 31, cdots, 100}.$



                        Then it becomes a simple matter to calculate
                        $;g(C) = log_{10}f(C).$






                        share|cite|improve this answer

























                          up vote
                          -1
                          down vote













                          An alternative approach is to work in base 10 logarithms. Chance of failing on 16 tries is



                          $displaystyle f(C) = left(frac{100-C}{100}right) times
                          left(frac{99-C}{99}right) times
                          left(frac{98-C}{98}right) times cdots times
                          left(frac{85-C}{85}right).
                          $



                          Assume that you've written a computer program that calculates
                          $;log_{10}n;$ for $nin{30, 31, cdots, 100}.$



                          Then it becomes a simple matter to calculate
                          $;g(C) = log_{10}f(C).$






                          share|cite|improve this answer























                            up vote
                            -1
                            down vote










                            up vote
                            -1
                            down vote









                            An alternative approach is to work in base 10 logarithms. Chance of failing on 16 tries is



                            $displaystyle f(C) = left(frac{100-C}{100}right) times
                            left(frac{99-C}{99}right) times
                            left(frac{98-C}{98}right) times cdots times
                            left(frac{85-C}{85}right).
                            $



                            Assume that you've written a computer program that calculates
                            $;log_{10}n;$ for $nin{30, 31, cdots, 100}.$



                            Then it becomes a simple matter to calculate
                            $;g(C) = log_{10}f(C).$






                            share|cite|improve this answer












                            An alternative approach is to work in base 10 logarithms. Chance of failing on 16 tries is



                            $displaystyle f(C) = left(frac{100-C}{100}right) times
                            left(frac{99-C}{99}right) times
                            left(frac{98-C}{98}right) times cdots times
                            left(frac{85-C}{85}right).
                            $



                            Assume that you've written a computer program that calculates
                            $;log_{10}n;$ for $nin{30, 31, cdots, 100}.$



                            Then it becomes a simple matter to calculate
                            $;g(C) = log_{10}f(C).$







                            share|cite|improve this answer












                            share|cite|improve this answer



                            share|cite|improve this answer










                            answered Nov 19 at 2:01









                            user2661923

                            428112




                            428112






























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