Stochastic chemical kinetics: What's the probability of reaching one state before another?











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Say we've got a system of stochastic chemical reactions, in discrete space and continuous time with specified rates, e.g.



$x_1 rightarrow x_1+1$ with rate $f_1(x_1,x_2)$,



$x_1 rightarrow x_1 -1$ with rate $g_1(x_1,x_2)$,



$x_2 rightarrow x_2 + 1$ with rate $f_1(x_1,x_2)$,



$x_2 rightarrow x_2 -1$ with rate $g_2(x_1,x_2)$.



So e.g. one can run a simulation via the Gillespie algorithm.



What's the probability that $x_1$ will reach some value $lambda_1$ before some other value $lambda_2$?



A specific case: If there is some state $x_1=gamma_1$ at which both $f_1=g_1=0$, it will essentially be "stuck", like an absorbing markov chain. What's the probability of reaching some other state $gamma_2$ before becoming stuck?



(I think that in the single-variable case, this could be equivalent to solving the problem in a countable state space Markov Chain.)










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    up vote
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    down vote

    favorite












    Say we've got a system of stochastic chemical reactions, in discrete space and continuous time with specified rates, e.g.



    $x_1 rightarrow x_1+1$ with rate $f_1(x_1,x_2)$,



    $x_1 rightarrow x_1 -1$ with rate $g_1(x_1,x_2)$,



    $x_2 rightarrow x_2 + 1$ with rate $f_1(x_1,x_2)$,



    $x_2 rightarrow x_2 -1$ with rate $g_2(x_1,x_2)$.



    So e.g. one can run a simulation via the Gillespie algorithm.



    What's the probability that $x_1$ will reach some value $lambda_1$ before some other value $lambda_2$?



    A specific case: If there is some state $x_1=gamma_1$ at which both $f_1=g_1=0$, it will essentially be "stuck", like an absorbing markov chain. What's the probability of reaching some other state $gamma_2$ before becoming stuck?



    (I think that in the single-variable case, this could be equivalent to solving the problem in a countable state space Markov Chain.)










    share|cite|improve this question


























      up vote
      -1
      down vote

      favorite









      up vote
      -1
      down vote

      favorite











      Say we've got a system of stochastic chemical reactions, in discrete space and continuous time with specified rates, e.g.



      $x_1 rightarrow x_1+1$ with rate $f_1(x_1,x_2)$,



      $x_1 rightarrow x_1 -1$ with rate $g_1(x_1,x_2)$,



      $x_2 rightarrow x_2 + 1$ with rate $f_1(x_1,x_2)$,



      $x_2 rightarrow x_2 -1$ with rate $g_2(x_1,x_2)$.



      So e.g. one can run a simulation via the Gillespie algorithm.



      What's the probability that $x_1$ will reach some value $lambda_1$ before some other value $lambda_2$?



      A specific case: If there is some state $x_1=gamma_1$ at which both $f_1=g_1=0$, it will essentially be "stuck", like an absorbing markov chain. What's the probability of reaching some other state $gamma_2$ before becoming stuck?



      (I think that in the single-variable case, this could be equivalent to solving the problem in a countable state space Markov Chain.)










      share|cite|improve this question















      Say we've got a system of stochastic chemical reactions, in discrete space and continuous time with specified rates, e.g.



      $x_1 rightarrow x_1+1$ with rate $f_1(x_1,x_2)$,



      $x_1 rightarrow x_1 -1$ with rate $g_1(x_1,x_2)$,



      $x_2 rightarrow x_2 + 1$ with rate $f_1(x_1,x_2)$,



      $x_2 rightarrow x_2 -1$ with rate $g_2(x_1,x_2)$.



      So e.g. one can run a simulation via the Gillespie algorithm.



      What's the probability that $x_1$ will reach some value $lambda_1$ before some other value $lambda_2$?



      A specific case: If there is some state $x_1=gamma_1$ at which both $f_1=g_1=0$, it will essentially be "stuck", like an absorbing markov chain. What's the probability of reaching some other state $gamma_2$ before becoming stuck?



      (I think that in the single-variable case, this could be equivalent to solving the problem in a countable state space Markov Chain.)







      stochastic-processes dynamical-systems monte-carlo chemistry






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      edited Nov 15 at 18:13

























      asked Nov 15 at 18:06









      bianca

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